In all fairness, it would be some kind of custom Neural Network designed to try and predict market movements (having been trained with past market data as well as things like counts of specific words in news articles and social media posts within a certain time frame) rather than an LLM.
Neural Networks are pretty good at spotting patterns in masses of data which people can’t easilly spot.
Of course, there must be a pattern there which doesn’t change much over time of certain things happening with more probability after certain other combinations of things, for it to actually beat the market, plus it also massivelly depends on the inputs it’s formatted to take (which a human is deciding rather than the NN itself, though maybe the technique used in LLMs of having huge dimensionality in terms of inputs and internal layers might work well there so that it can take “everything but the kitchen sink” as inputs).
And then, there is of course the “small” risk that it might work fine for months/years under normal market conditions at doing what is essentially “picking nickles in front of a steamroller” - i.e. making low value gains in a nice reliable away for as long as normal market conditions are happening, but when conditions change getting totally splattered - whilst because of the whole black-box nature of NNs the humans don’t recognize the convoluted technique it has converge to use through training, as that kind of risky strategy.
That said, unlike an LLM at least a custom NN wouldn’t come up with a “you’re so right” excuse when the human tells it of the massive losses it incurred.
Trading firms have been using ML and Neural Nets for trading and investment insight for ages before the current LLM “AI” boom started. I knew someone working in that space on investment derivatives in the mid 2010s.
You don’t really need to speculate on it. It’s old news. This is just a joke about how there’s a new crop of suckers who are absolutely using LLMs for stock advice.
It’s true that NNs are strong at spotting patterns in masses of data, but trading is a particularly hard problem for this kind of task because the market constantly adapts to its participants. If other traders have found a pattern, it will already be priced in when you try to make money off it, and your strategy will fail. And since trading is a worldwide competition with billions of dollars to be won, you are naturally competing against teams of the best of the best who are willing to put massive resources into their algorithm development, computing, and data acquisition. Therefore the chances for someone like us to find an algorithm that systematically beats them is very low.
So for any young math/CS nerd who comes across this thread and wants to try their luck, be aware of the difficulty before you invest any real money, and learn about the merits of passive investing.
In all fairness, it would be some kind of custom Neural Network designed to try and predict market movements (having been trained with past market data as well as things like counts of specific words in news articles and social media posts within a certain time frame) rather than an LLM.
Neural Networks are pretty good at spotting patterns in masses of data which people can’t easilly spot.
Of course, there must be a pattern there which doesn’t change much over time of certain things happening with more probability after certain other combinations of things, for it to actually beat the market, plus it also massivelly depends on the inputs it’s formatted to take (which a human is deciding rather than the NN itself, though maybe the technique used in LLMs of having huge dimensionality in terms of inputs and internal layers might work well there so that it can take “everything but the kitchen sink” as inputs).
And then, there is of course the “small” risk that it might work fine for months/years under normal market conditions at doing what is essentially “picking nickles in front of a steamroller” - i.e. making low value gains in a nice reliable away for as long as normal market conditions are happening, but when conditions change getting totally splattered - whilst because of the whole black-box nature of NNs the humans don’t recognize the convoluted technique it has converge to use through training, as that kind of risky strategy.
That said, unlike an LLM at least a custom NN wouldn’t come up with a “you’re so right” excuse when the human tells it of the massive losses it incurred.
Trading firms have been using ML and Neural Nets for trading and investment insight for ages before the current LLM “AI” boom started. I knew someone working in that space on investment derivatives in the mid 2010s.
You don’t really need to speculate on it. It’s old news. This is just a joke about how there’s a new crop of suckers who are absolutely using LLMs for stock advice.
It’s true that NNs are strong at spotting patterns in masses of data, but trading is a particularly hard problem for this kind of task because the market constantly adapts to its participants. If other traders have found a pattern, it will already be priced in when you try to make money off it, and your strategy will fail. And since trading is a worldwide competition with billions of dollars to be won, you are naturally competing against teams of the best of the best who are willing to put massive resources into their algorithm development, computing, and data acquisition. Therefore the chances for someone like us to find an algorithm that systematically beats them is very low.
So for any young math/CS nerd who comes across this thread and wants to try their luck, be aware of the difficulty before you invest any real money, and learn about the merits of passive investing.