cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43734791

Just as Russian President Vladimir Putin was clear about his intentions toward Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping has left no doubt about his plans for Taiwan. The only way to deter him from pursuing “reunification” with the island is to make clear that the costs of doing so will be punishing.

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Last month, Japan’s new prime minister, Takaichi Sanae, stated that Chinese aggression against the self-governing democratic island could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, warranting a military response.

Takaichi is right, but it is not just Japan that would be affected. Because Taiwan produces 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors and hosts one of its most vibrant globalized tech ecosystems, a blockade or invasion would send shockwaves through the global economy, potentially tilting the race for AI leadership in China’s favor. The fall of free Taiwan would also upend the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, placing much of Asia under China’s yoke, while cementing China’s chokehold on the South and East China Seas. For these reasons, a conflict over the island has the potential to escalate into a broader war.

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