What about Taiwan and Cuba? If Russia has basically no externally enforced consequences, China and the US will start looking at their backyards a little differently
Then there are no consequences for annexing Crimea in 2014, which sets a worrisome precedent for Taiwan and Cuba (and of course, former SSRs all over Eurasia).
Putin will not give up Crimea. An article was posted today in this community about Ukrainians troops deserting. Both sides are exhausted. The war must end now.
Zelenskyy will not give up Crimea either, because his country’s constitution does not give him the power to. They’d both give up their lives if they gave up Crimea, but Putin is a) only driven by personal vanity and a desire to return the nation to 35 year old glory, while Zelenskyy is driven by a sense of justice and national pride rooted in something recently stolen from the country; and b) in a much worse position to survive the bad PR of continuing the war: it might not be Putin who ends the war, but Russia will not continue fighting for long.
I think the Russian people will more willingly give up the potential of gained territory than the Ukrainian people will give up part of their land, tbh. Putin was incredibly popular for many years (decades, even), but the cost of living in Russia is insane, and with gas shortages and bombings all over the countryside have dulled his shine.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I hope not. Invaders shouldn’t get to keep territory just because anymore. I’d be fine with giving each currently contested oblast in Ukraine an independence vote afterwards, but that should be independent of the peace process and if they were to join Russia, Ukrainian oblasts would be equally subject to reparations payments as the rest of Russia.
If Ukraine had invaded Russia and annexed its territory, I’d want Ukraine to cede its acquired territory and pay reparations, too, but they didn’t. The only thing they did to provoke this was to edge closer to Europe, which is certainly their right as a sovereign state.
It’s not just about Putin. It’s also about the precedent you create by letting Russia go Scot-free.
What’s going to stop him from rebuilding his army and doing it again if there are no consequences? What message does it convey to other bad actors?
We don’t force enough bad actors to pay reparations. And war criminals get off scot free as long as they’re from a certain set of nations.
I also agree 100%, and this post is not meant to be a whataboutism. Just because some criminals get away with it doesn’t mean others should.
That precedent has already been set decades ago, unfortunately. We do need to address that one too, but that is going to be a much harder challenge.
But in the meantime, let’s not set any new ones. The world is in a poor enough state as it is.
There are consequences. He loses all the land he took in the 2022 invasion. The European Alliance will stop future invasions.
What about Taiwan and Cuba? If Russia has basically no externally enforced consequences, China and the US will start looking at their backyards a little differently
But there are consequences. In my proposal, Russia must withdraw from all land it seized after the 2022 invasion.
Then there are no consequences for annexing Crimea in 2014, which sets a worrisome precedent for Taiwan and Cuba (and of course, former SSRs all over Eurasia).
Putin will not give up Crimea. An article was posted today in this community about Ukrainians troops deserting. Both sides are exhausted. The war must end now.
Zelenskyy will not give up Crimea either, because his country’s constitution does not give him the power to. They’d both give up their lives if they gave up Crimea, but Putin is a) only driven by personal vanity and a desire to return the nation to 35 year old glory, while Zelenskyy is driven by a sense of justice and national pride rooted in something recently stolen from the country; and b) in a much worse position to survive the bad PR of continuing the war: it might not be Putin who ends the war, but Russia will not continue fighting for long.
Both sides are exhausted. The Ukrainian government will be willing to cede land taken before the 2022 invasion in exchange for peace.
I think the Russian people will more willingly give up the potential of gained territory than the Ukrainian people will give up part of their land, tbh. Putin was incredibly popular for many years (decades, even), but the cost of living in Russia is insane, and with gas shortages and bombings all over the countryside have dulled his shine.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I hope not. Invaders shouldn’t get to keep territory just because anymore. I’d be fine with giving each currently contested oblast in Ukraine an independence vote afterwards, but that should be independent of the peace process and if they were to join Russia, Ukrainian oblasts would be equally subject to reparations payments as the rest of Russia.
If Ukraine had invaded Russia and annexed its territory, I’d want Ukraine to cede its acquired territory and pay reparations, too, but they didn’t. The only thing they did to provoke this was to edge closer to Europe, which is certainly their right as a sovereign state.