Iran isn’t good, but the kind of bad it does isn’t the kind nukes would have an impact on. Meanwhile a nuclear armed Iran wouldn’t be bombed by Israel year in and year out.
They would if it was only their moral integrity stopping them, but they wouldn’t because doing such a thing would destroy their international standing and immediately start a regional war with generous Western involvement if not outright belligerency. In other words: They wouldn’t use a nuke against a regional adversary for the same reason North Korea hasn’t nuked South Korea. There’s a limit to how far you can push nukes and, counterintuitively, actually using them goes beyond that limit. If anything, it’s countries with actual muscle like China, US and its allies and to a lesser extent Russia that could actually use a nuke and (comparatively) get away with it.
Oh that’s what you meant. In that case I see what you mean, but I’m not convinced. First, doing such a thing would destroy their own seat of power, as most revolts tend to start in the capital or reach it pretty quickly. Second, it would immediately spark a coup, civil war or intensify the revolution, for the same reason Assad’s gassing didn’t stop the Syrian revolution. The level of destruction a nuke can cause can be more or less replicated using conventional means, using a nuke means dealing with nuclear fallout which even the most maniacal governments wouldn’t put themselves through and using drastic violence tends to push people towards militancy rather than compliance. Third, it’d destroy their international legitimacy, give Western countries an excuse for drastic intervention and discourage their allies from helping them defend against such an intervention. Iran’s government is certainly evil, but they’re rationally evil, and nuking one’s own people is very much not rational.
Iran isn’t good, but the kind of bad it does isn’t the kind nukes would have an impact on. Meanwhile a nuclear armed Iran wouldn’t be bombed by Israel year in and year out.
Assad gazed Syrian rebels, so I don’t think the Guardians of the Revolution wouldn’t nuke a rebelled city. That would stop the revolt instantly.
They would if it was only their moral integrity stopping them, but they wouldn’t because doing such a thing would destroy their international standing and immediately start a regional war with generous Western involvement if not outright belligerency. In other words: They wouldn’t use a nuke against a regional adversary for the same reason North Korea hasn’t nuked South Korea. There’s a limit to how far you can push nukes and, counterintuitively, actually using them goes beyond that limit. If anything, it’s countries with actual muscle like China, US and its allies and to a lesser extent Russia that could actually use a nuke and (comparatively) get away with it.
Not against q regional adversary. But against their own population, they would.
Oh that’s what you meant. In that case I see what you mean, but I’m not convinced. First, doing such a thing would destroy their own seat of power, as most revolts tend to start in the capital or reach it pretty quickly. Second, it would immediately spark a coup, civil war or intensify the revolution, for the same reason Assad’s gassing didn’t stop the Syrian revolution. The level of destruction a nuke can cause can be more or less replicated using conventional means, using a nuke means dealing with nuclear fallout which even the most maniacal governments wouldn’t put themselves through and using drastic violence tends to push people towards militancy rather than compliance. Third, it’d destroy their international legitimacy, give Western countries an excuse for drastic intervention and discourage their allies from helping them defend against such an intervention. Iran’s government is certainly evil, but they’re rationally evil, and nuking one’s own people is very much not rational.