I think it’s better understood as many different factions with their own desires:
Those who want raw power for the sake of power. Trump is almost certainly personally in this category. This is probably the primary motivation behind the Project 2025 stuff, tearing down the guardrails that limit their power.
Those who are trying to enrich themselves: Trump’s family is probably here, and Trump himself and his inner circle do seem to be motivated by financial gain to some degree.
Those who want to use the Trump administration to make the U.S. whiter by expelling non-white people and restricting immigration of brown people (while increasing white refugees admitted).
Those who want to assert dominance of certain types of Christianity (with some internal tension on whether that extends to Catholics/Protestant/Mormon/other beliefs)
Those who want the government to pursue business friendly policies like lower taxes and lower business regulations.
Those who want to leverage the government’s power to win a culture war (bullying schools, libraries, Hollywood, the media, etc., into supporting right-wing cultural principles).
There is tension between all of these things, and there’s tension within the Trump coalition. The business interests and the immigration hardliners jockey for position with Trump and his inner circle. The religious groups and the war hawks and the cryptocurrency scammers are all trying to advance their own agenda, too.
Not everything is going to make coherent sense. Not every idea is going to win, either. And if anything, the business side of things is less powerful than in the typical administration with several areas that are actively hostile to traditional Republican business interests (immigration, tariffs, pardoning securities fraudsters, shaking down corporations for donations or tribute).
It’s important to recognize the tensions because those are also weak spots in their coalition. Defeating fascism will involve fomenting some internal tensions and peeling off different factions.
That doesn’t make sense. Adding paperwork isn’t going to lower labor costs.
Undocumented workers are already the least paid, least protected category of worker.
They’d be switching from workers with no minimum wage to ones that have a minimum wage, need to be properly tracked by the IRS and all that.
In my state undocumented farm workers make a little more than minimum wage. After this rule change they will be able to legally pay them less.
These are the two most important points of the blog or article I posted:
DOL’s Reasoning. The DOL estimates that agricultural employers will save over $24 billion over the next 10 years as a result of these changes.
AEWR Examples. For some states, these AEWR changes will mean that the state minimum wage will become the highest applicable wage rate for H-2A workers. For other states, the new AEWRs will be lower than the state’s minimum wage. For example, California’s statewide hourly minimum wage for most employers for 2025 is $16.50. However, the new hourly AEWR in California after applying the state’s $3.00 downward adjustment for nonmonetary compensation is $13.45 for entry-level H-2A workers in the Skill I category and $15.71 for experienced H-2A workers in the Skill Level II category.
I feel like what you’re missing is that this is lowering the floor for what you can pay visa holders, but saying that will make them preferable to people where there is no floor doesn’t follow.
I feel like you are still missing a piece of this puzzle.
It turns the migrant farm workers into almost an indentured servitude type class. Right now they demand free market wages which is often above minimum wage in that state. Once their immigration status is tied to their employer they have no ability to shop around for better pay.
So sure there is no “floor” right now, but the free market is the floor. This change might benefit some migrants who are getting bad deals currently, but overall it will harm the migrant workforce and drive labor costs down.
Without this migrant labor would get more and more expensive, as more and more people are deported.
Once their immigration status is tied to their employer they have no ability to shop around for better pay.
So why would they enter the program? They currently have demonstrated that they have no problem not having an immigration status, so why would they switch to having something that doesn’t benefit them, that they don’t want, and that costs them money?
Their goal is to make the legal path cheaper to appeal to farmers, but farmers aren’t the ones driving the price. As you said: market rate is higher than this guarantees people. If there’s a growing shortage of labor you can expect labor wages to rise. Why would you agree to work for less if you can just go to a different farm and make more?
I understand your point and the situation perfectly well.
migrant labor would get more and more expensive, as more and more people are deported.
I believe this is why you’re wrong, and farmers aren’t hoping it goes faster, but rather voted again their own interests like so many have, and just didn’t think they would specifically target their livelihoods.
A racist administration deporting people aggressively, lowering the incentives to come here legally, and not caring about the consequences, while farmers scramble to control damage they didn’t think was actually going to happen is a way simpler story. Also fits nicely with “America first” burning the ability of those farmers to sell to a global market, canceling programs that gave them money, and canceling food aid orders that mostly existed as back handed subsidies.
They voted for this and it’s going exactly to plan, they just wish the plan was faster.
The plan is to remove everyone undocumented and then bring them all back as H-2A visa labor paying them pennies on the dollar.
I think it’s better understood as many different factions with their own desires:
There is tension between all of these things, and there’s tension within the Trump coalition. The business interests and the immigration hardliners jockey for position with Trump and his inner circle. The religious groups and the war hawks and the cryptocurrency scammers are all trying to advance their own agenda, too.
Not everything is going to make coherent sense. Not every idea is going to win, either. And if anything, the business side of things is less powerful than in the typical administration with several areas that are actively hostile to traditional Republican business interests (immigration, tariffs, pardoning securities fraudsters, shaking down corporations for donations or tribute).
It’s important to recognize the tensions because those are also weak spots in their coalition. Defeating fascism will involve fomenting some internal tensions and peeling off different factions.
That doesn’t make sense. Adding paperwork isn’t going to lower labor costs.
Undocumented workers are already the least paid, least protected category of worker.
They’d be switching from workers with no minimum wage to ones that have a minimum wage, need to be properly tracked by the IRS and all that.
Haha, you think they are keeping the rules the same? https://www.fisherphillips.com/en/news-insights/dol-issues-game-changer-rule-for-h-2a-farmworker-wages.html
In my state undocumented farm workers make a little more than minimum wage. After this rule change they will be able to legally pay them less.
These are the two most important points of the blog or article I posted:
I feel like what you’re missing is that this is lowering the floor for what you can pay visa holders, but saying that will make them preferable to people where there is no floor doesn’t follow.
I feel like you are still missing a piece of this puzzle.
It turns the migrant farm workers into almost an indentured servitude type class. Right now they demand free market wages which is often above minimum wage in that state. Once their immigration status is tied to their employer they have no ability to shop around for better pay.
So sure there is no “floor” right now, but the free market is the floor. This change might benefit some migrants who are getting bad deals currently, but overall it will harm the migrant workforce and drive labor costs down.
Without this migrant labor would get more and more expensive, as more and more people are deported.
So why would they enter the program? They currently have demonstrated that they have no problem not having an immigration status, so why would they switch to having something that doesn’t benefit them, that they don’t want, and that costs them money?
Their goal is to make the legal path cheaper to appeal to farmers, but farmers aren’t the ones driving the price. As you said: market rate is higher than this guarantees people. If there’s a growing shortage of labor you can expect labor wages to rise. Why would you agree to work for less if you can just go to a different farm and make more?
I understand your point and the situation perfectly well.
I believe this is why you’re wrong, and farmers aren’t hoping it goes faster, but rather voted again their own interests like so many have, and just didn’t think they would specifically target their livelihoods.
A racist administration deporting people aggressively, lowering the incentives to come here legally, and not caring about the consequences, while farmers scramble to control damage they didn’t think was actually going to happen is a way simpler story. Also fits nicely with “America first” burning the ability of those farmers to sell to a global market, canceling programs that gave them money, and canceling food aid orders that mostly existed as back handed subsidies.
Lol.
The plan is slave labour
Gotta close that prison loophole.