Thiiis. The insiders need to laud the goals of protesters and the protesters need to ease off on the “complicit” insiders a bit. We are on the same team, and the combination of approaches is more powerful. Disagreeing on methods is fine, you pull, we push, momentum baby.

There are ways to resist short of burning shit down. The idea that this is a dichotomy is exactly the “yet you participate in society, interesting” meme.

What fucks with me is that you can’t control all the variables. School and peers can outweigh the ideas you try to put forward. I feel like I’m working on deprogramming more than I actually have a chance to teach already and my kids are only small.

Fuck me, for self-proclaimed coward you are unbelievably smug. Don’t you consider that a “better” life also means being able to take pride that the way you move through the world doesn’t actively harm others. Just awful.

Guess it depends how you define “bad”. In my eyes a good business does well by everyone: staff get well compensated and have a good work environment, customers get a good product at a fair price, suppliers get their invoices paid, owners (if not a coop) get some ROI and their name on the door. Trump has only ever managed 0.5 out of 4, ergo bad businessman.

Although with the overt politicisation of BLS I think I’ll be with you in trusting ADP more going forward. Going to be super interesting to watch any divergence from now on. I guess it could be that some of the YTD difference was some internal power struggle that was unwound by the revisions leading to Trump sticking his oar in, but I think that’s a conspiracy theory until someone gives a quote to that effect.

Still confused why you continue to emphasise estimate when ADP is also an estimate.

I already emphasised the difficulty of real time stats, revisions are not shocking, but perfectly normal. I don’t think anyone is that surprised (though we can agree that there are a lot of overconfident and less statistically literate professionals), the gulf between hard data and sentiment/alternative data (vibecession and so forth) was well covered and had to resolve one way or another.

ADP was +104k in July, so by your previous logic we should expect upwards revisions in the BLS July number as the year goes on right?

Ah an economist, say no more fam.

What are you talking about? They’re both estimates extrapolated from samples. I think most statisticians would prefer stratified sampling over one company’s payrolls processing, but whatever. Maybe chuds would argue that ADP is so much more efficient/accurate because it’s outside of the “swamp” of govt, it’s certainly an independent data point. I mean I agree with you in that BLS is not reliable either. Real time economics is hard.

If you honestly preferred ADP all along and will continue to espouse it’s superiority when it next contradicts your view rather than confirming it (as it will because data are noisy) then more power to you.

BLS jobs report was a beat, +140k jobs and unemployment down a shade. I agree with you on the themes but it doesn’t help to cherry pick data.

It’s kinda poetic for them to go down next to the titanic, itself a story of complacency and excess/opulance.