Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez holds a slight lead over Vice President JD Vance in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup, according to a new poll.
The New York Democratic congresswoman, known as AOC, edges the likely Republican nominee 51% to 49%, in The Argument/Verasight survey released on Tuesday. However, the result was within the poll’s 2.7 percentage point margin of error, making the two candidates statistically tied. The poll asked voters who they would vote for if the election was between the two of them.
Ahh yes… The very free and fair 2028 elections we’ll being having. The Republicans definitely won’t try every trick in the book to manipulate them or stop them outright. Nevermind establishment Dems fucking over primaries to shoehorn in their milquetoast candidates, while fucking over actual progressives!
I am so looking forward to voting our way out of fascism/ a dictatorship, as has absolutely been exhibited to work multiple times through history.
My fucking neighbor has a Trump 2028 sticker right under his Israeli flag
Historically strong state men love minorities and Jewish in particular
/s
what would lenin do?
we need socialism
I suspect that we will find that lead ballots hold more weight, when it comes to voting.
The DNC will use all their resources to sabotage her and place a Israeli loyalist that supports insider trading, forgiving the criminals in charge now, not reversing any of the shareholder first policies and deregulation and continuing to ratchet us to Nazi land while gaslighting us about how great the economy is because line go up for the capitalist class.
Part of the reason why social democracy is so important on the path to socialism is because line must go up for everyone or we’re totally screwed. I have no doubt the DNC will do whatever it can to undermine a candidate like AOC, but if we can implement a policy like Medicare for all, that will be a massive win for getting to the goal in more ways than one.
Or AOC will win and become what you described.
i mean she would have to, if she wanted to live.
I’m all for a women president eventually, but perhaps the elections during an attempted fascist take over isn’t the time.
Some men will simply not vote for a woman, it’s sad, but it’s reality. If a woman is on the ballot the democrats will lose again.
The time will come, just not yet with stakes this high. I would love to see AOC as the first female president.
Attitudes like yours are why Democrats lose elections. We talk ourselves out of our best candidates. We try to compromise with Republicans right out the gate, and try to select the more moderate ‘electable’ candidate.
Your line of thinking got us Kerry, Clinton, and Biden.
Trying to select a candidate based on “electability” is bullshit, because you just end up selecting for the most uninspiring centrist who can’t get people to the polls.
You think you’re selecting for winners, but you’re taking your strongest pieces off the board.
This argument is frequently made on Lemmy. I’d like it to be true. But I just don’t know.
Makes sense in places like California or New York. But I don’t know about places in the Midwest e.g.
“We’ve never tried the inspiring candidate, but without evidence, I must insist that they’re unelectable.”
I mean, we did run the inspiring candidate. Obama. It was a huge success.
Did he turn out to be everything that everyone hoped and dreamed? No. But he energized the hell out of the base and at least the best president of the past few decades.
Exactly. And people were also saying then that we needed to go with the more electable candidate with more experience. That was the exact argument Hillary supporters made during the 2008 primary.
If Britain and Mexico can both elect a woman to lead their country, why can’t the US?
Because half of the people who voted in the last election voted for Trump?
So?
why can’t the US?
Because this is a trashcan nation that votes for felon rapist insurrectionist pedophiles…twice.
You’re just doing the left version of American exceptionalism.
Most supporters voted for him thrice. Just another old white dude got in the way that one time.
More like a worldwide pandemic got in the way. Biden couldn’t have won without covid.
Because a solid percentage of the country quite literally wants women barefoot and pregnant, with another solid percentage following along with them because something something taxes something something jerbs.
This is just the woke version of American exceptionalism. Conservatives exist in all countries. Hell, Mexico is famous for its machismo culture.
I think you guys can both be correct here. Just because shitty people are all over the Earth, that does not negate the problems people point out with the US.
I did not see them say or even imply that the US is the only place with sexist conservatives, or that we are the worst in the world about it. It was answering a question about the US too.
I think we all know that there are places in the world that have been far worse for far longer in just about any bad way you can think of. But it’s still pretty noteworthy when the world’s superpower that once saw itself as a diverse melting pot and land of opportunity and democracy goes and elects somebody who literally said on TV that they would be a dictator. And this after that same person already did a horrible bad faith job for all the world to see.
I hear you, but we’ve tried the strategies of the mainstream Democrats and they’ve failed hard.
Hopefully the recent ACA votes taught the Democrats that voting to end the shutdown was a terrible idea and that they should never again compromise with Republicans for mere promises of future consideration.
The Democrats should rally behind AOC and primary all corrupt bastards that enable the Republicans.
Makes sense in places like California or New York.
California and New York are absolutely fountaining with conservative voters. These states only go blue because conservatives like Diane Feinstein and Gavin Newsom have found it easier to voice conservative policies from a liberal party than to voice liberal policies from a conservative one.
On the flip side, Bush Jr won Texas against Anne Richards by running to her Left and pandering to Hispanics and black voters while she pounded the old Dixiecrat drum on crime and drugs. Shortly thereafter, long time Democrat Rick Perry changed parties, because he decided it was easier to get oil money as a liberal Republican than a conservative Democrat.
Politics in this country is way more complex than people like to give it credit. So much is simply driven by the party with the most money or the most gerrymandered districts. What’s winnable can boil down to whether or not your brother is the governor, not your race or your gender or even your voting record.
Meanwhile a democratic socialist won the mayorship of New York City.
Against a former Dem governor who was backed by a Republican president no less
That complexity sure sounds like corruption!
But realistically, corruption does add to the complexity, lol.
I mean, there was Sanders and look at what the Dems did to him. I don’t think Hillary and Kamala are any better than Biden or Clinton either.
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If she wins the primary she should be the candidate. She probably won’t though, because the dems are going to sandbag her and select a safe corpo pol like the corpse of Chuck Schumer
And how well has your strategy of “don’t rock the boat, don’t try anything new” been working out for you there, buddy? How many elections do we need to lose before you realize that you have crap instincts on what makes a candidate electable? In our current electoral landscape, the quickest way to lose an election is to be stupid enough to pick the “safe” candidate.
I think you may literally be insane. After all, what is insanity but repeating the same action again and again, but expecting a different result?
I think you personally don’t want a woman president, and you’re hiding behind concerns of electability because it’s not socially acceptable on lemjy to be an overt misogynist.
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Try learning how to spell Kamala, Ivan.
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So you’d rather go with a proven losing strategy?
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Your line of thinking got us Kerry, Clinton, and Biden.
It got us Biden. I think you underestimate how much institutional support Kerry and Clinton had in the run up to their nominations. Kerry wasn’t even that bad of a candidate on his face. He just got railroaded in Ohio the same way Gore did in Florida, while everyone in national media threw up their hands and proclaimed “Too Liberal!”
And Biden did poorly. It should have been a cakewalk and he barely won. “It got us Biden” isn’t an argument to the utility of timidity.
It should have been a cakewalk and he barely won.
Biden turned out 16M more voters than Hillary Clinton four years earlier. That’s nothing to sneeze at. He still won on the margins, because Donald Trump also turned out an extra 12M voters, with a heavy 1:1 split in the same states Trump narrowly beat Hillary in a year earlier.
I don’t think anything about that suggests the election was a cakewalk. I do think it illustrates the difference direct-mail voting has on overall US turnout. And the fact that both parties immediately retreated from the policy - with Trump even trying to ban it nationwide - says something about the real state of American Democracy both before and after the Pandemic.
2020 is a hard election to judge precisely because it was so fucking weird. COVID cut the knees off Bernie’s primary campaign. Millions of people - particularly the elderly - were dropping dead in the lead up to the election. Misinformation was chronic. The actual elections process (which has always sucked in the US) was extra shady af, particularly in rural districts without modernized voting systems.
But I will say that the Biden pick was a desperation move by conservative Democrats who believed they were losing control of the party. And 2024 was a repeat of this process, with the spectre of Trump 2 forcing progressive voters to choose between Genocide Joe’s last minute replacement and Actual Outright Fascism.
Real “Douche” v “Turd Sandwich” election. But these candidates won almost entirely because of who backed them. Silicon Valley went hard for Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024.
It should have been a cakewalk because Trump was currently the guy screwing everything up and not improving people’s lives. Incumbency isn’t an advantage for President anymore and Trump (with help from COVID) was doing particularly badly. He had sub-40 approval polls and, before the general election campaign, polls were putting most of the main Democratic options up by 6-8. It wasn’t a cakewalk in the actual election because Biden didn’t run a good campaign.
Biden in 2024 was then the guy to blame for everything going wrong (inflation in this case), with sub-40 approval polls, and was on course to lose before being kicked off the ticket. And Harris made the baffling decision to frame herself as just being a younger Biden.
It should have been a cakewalk
He brought in 74M votes, with a surge in fascist supporters coming from big historical swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. On what planet was that going to be a cakewalk?
Incumbency isn’t an advantage for President anymore
That’s not true. Incumbency channels money to your campaign. The Biden/Harris warchest was bigger in 2024 than in 2020. It affords you a roadmap based on your prior victory. Harris - like Hillary before her - failed to focus her campaign in the winnable states and squandered manpower chasing red states she had no chance in.
Biden in 2024 was then the guy to blame for everything going wrong
2024 was a great year, economically speaking. The market was up enormously. Unemployment was low. International trade was strong in the wake of the COVID recovery. Business was booming. The inflation was - if anything - a product of the economy running too hot, as demand outstretched supply in a number of retail sectors.
Republicans were happy enough to take credit for this prosperity at the Congressional/Gubernatorial level, then twist in their seats and condemn inflation as a uniquely Presidential sin. Democrats let them get away with it, because they were too busy covering their asses on Israel, backpedaling on the COVID response, and trying to find some kind of middle ground on the fully fabricated “transgender athletes” issue.
2024 was a great year, economically speaking.
And this pants-on-head stupid take was why we lost the election.
Not countering your opponent’s gains is also part of running a bad campaign. The same people who ran his campaign were running Harris’s and making all those dumb mistakes you highlight. Only she didn’t have the “change” label and Trump’s failures at the front of people’s minds to edge her over the line. Biden was heading toward a loss in 2024.
Presidential elections keep going down to the wire and it’s not because Donald Trump is just that talented. These things shouldn’t be being won or lost on the margins. All of the last three candidates have been a lot closer to John Kerry than Barrack Obama.
Not sure if you’ve been paying attention but Americans chose a felon rapist insurrectionist pedophile over a more qualified woman the last two times a woman has been on the ballot.
Read the room.
If we run a woman, we will lose. And that doesn’t even take into account that many people who aren’t liberals (independents) do not like AOC because they believe she is too liberal.
This is a tired trope and fewer and fewer people buy it.
Clinton and Harris didn’t loose because they were women, they lost because they ran bad campaigns. Clinton was not particularly sympathetic and many people feel she was given the nomination over Sanders because it was her turn. Harris looked like she had some substance early on and then quickly lost her steam.
Shove this Russian propaganda right back where it came from
I’m glad you choose to ignore objective reality and say stupid, bumbling shit instead.
Your teachers would be proud of the critical thinking skills you’ve developed. Keep up the good work.
You know you’ve lost the argument when you start throwing around slurs.
I am Vladimir Putin himself. And I would like to inform you that that guy is not one of my bots.
Something you would only say if he was one of your bots.
My officers report their full list of bots to me under penalty of death. I don’t see this guy on my records. Maybe the guy’s working for China?
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I’m still of the VERY strong opinion that Hillary and Kamala didn’t lose because they were women, but because they were Hillary and Kamala.
I don’t know, but maybe we shouldn’t base our gender litmus test off of literally the most unlikeable women the DNC could have picked.
I think you’re mostly right, but being women had to be at least a few percent of it.
Harris wasn’t the “most unlikeable” by a long shot, but she was certainly a solid “meh”.
Harris was hamstrung by not having a primary and listening to the worst possible advice from the people that helped Clinton lose to Trump.
I fear you are right. And with numbers like this, the Democrats have an uphill battle anyway, with all the rigging and ratfucking that the Republicans do, not to mention the EC system itself.
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50% of the population cannot be reasoned with.
Comes out closer to 27%, but the deck is so heavily stacked with Winner-Take-All elections and election manipulation through voter caging and outright fuckery a la The Brooks Brothers Riot that this cohort is heavily over-represented nationwide.
Hoping they’ll magically not be misogynistic or that they’ll vote in their own best interest for once is a fool’s errand.
The national punditry has so much invested in the superficial identity politics of a candidate, they can’t see whether a given individual is actually likeable. Nobody had Zohran Mamdani as a serious candidate for Mayor this time last year. Nobody had Donald Trump as a serious candidate in 2015. Even Obama’s run was largely considered a token bid for VP in late 2007.
Underestimate candidates like AOC and Rashida Tlaib at your own peril, conservatives.
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They also won’t vote for any democratic candidate no matter what genitalia they’re sporting. Basing our candidate on them is asinine.
Some men will simply not vote for a woman, it’s sad, but it’s reality.
Can we all agree that those men are trash? I don’t care what else they’ve got going on, if they refuse to vote for a woman because she’s a woman, they deserve to go into the dumpster.
I’m so sick of all these sacks of shit making the world worse
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To be clear, I didn’t insist we run women candidates anyway. That’s a tactical decision I don’t feel qualified to make from the toilet where I make Lemmy posts.
I just want us to agree that those 30% of men or whatever are trash. Because they are trash. Trash that votes, but still trash.
(And not irredeemable - many things that end up in the trash can be fixed or repurposed. People are not immutable.)
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Oh well, I’m sure they’ve got a white man somewhere who’s about 90 and will keep things just the way they are because to fix things is “undemocratic”.
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You don’t win elections by appealing to your opponents. Triangulation is a tragic lie.
You don’t win elections by appealing to your opponents.
If there is just one lesson non-Republicans should take from Trump winning two elections, it should be this one!
@duncan_bayne @Zaktor can someone tell Keir Starmer as well
I mean this is just the reality of it. I’m right there with you. Dems tried it twice and we all saw how that went. I told my friend the other day that she will be president someday, just not now. Probably give it another 25-30 years though.
someone should take one for the team and form an alternative socialist government of the united states as a micronation. seriously!
I had no idea who this JD Vance person was until he became trump’s running mate. Dude you’re not popular or interesting on your own. Don’t act like people actually like you, couch fucking baby.
You’ve been flying blind. JD’s been the spectre haunting American politics since the Obama Era. That creepy little turd’s backed his way up the drainpipe of American politics with the help of everyone from James Dobson to Oprah. He’s the Republicans’ Hillary Clinton.
He’s a Peter Thiel project. They met when Vance was in either college or law school. Shillbilly never would have met any of those people without Thiel’s help. Probably would never even have gotten a book deal trashing his family.
Ron Howard directed JD Vance’s biopic in 2020.
For anyone that isn’t aware of it: Hillbilly Elegy
At first I misread that as Howard Stern.
I was imagining him sitting around with a couple of strippers making a bunch of couch fucker jokes.
It’s not too late. We can still have this movie made! Somebody call Stern’s agent!
His best-selling memoir was turned into a Ron Howard film that got 2 Oscar nominations. He wasn’t nobody.
JFC, “JD” “Vance” is about as appealing as a bucket of piss. How in the fuck is this even close?
I get it - AOC doesn’t have a dong and so a lot of mouthbreathers rule her out on that alone. But still, Christ. This is the stupid bootlick that called Donvict a Nazi and is now his VP and sits there and chastises one of our allies like some kind of cartoon bully.
America has repeatedly proven it will not vote for a woman, no matter how qualified she is
We’ve proven we don’t like centrist women with status quo platforms pretty convincingly. Anything more is speculative imo.
And yet it’s elected centrist man after centrist man. Funny, that.
The last time there was another option on the table he became the first black president in our nation’s history. Perhaps there’s a lesson to be learned there.
I think it’s a stretch to say Obama wasn’t centrist, but really it’s irrelevant. US voters were fine with voting in centrist men in if they were appealing enough, but once a centrist woman is put up, they’ll let a self-confessed wannabe dictator into office with hardly a fight.
Obama certainly acted like a centrist but that’s not how he campaigned which means that’s not what won him the election.
Again, irrelevant. Also, he won twice, so his initial campaign wasn’t the end all be all, either.
Yes, they’d vote for a male neoliberal instead of a female neoliberal.
That doesn’t mean they’d vote for a male conservative over a female progressive.
I guarantee you a far left woman like AOC is not going to get elected. Too many independents think she’s too far left. The right can win by being extreme right. The left can’t win by being extreme left. Not in this shithole.
That’s what they said about far left black men until Obama came along running as a progressive and won handily. For some reason we didn’t learn any lessons from that and went right back to boring centrist candidates afterwards.
Nothing about affordable health care and not trying to actively poison the planet as much as possible is extreme left
It’d be good if we could define things like “far left”. AOC may be progressive, but not sure she’s really far left anything.
She’s about where the Democrats used to be and supposedly stood for at one time. Probably pre-Clinton for sure. The Republicans have been dragging the window to the right for years and years and all the money in politics sure ain’t helping.
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The women who were presented to America had many more problems than their gender. I’m not discounting the reality that a woman has to be exceptional to be considered adequate by the electorate, but “America will not vote for a woman” is true until it’s not.
America voted for Clinton
Yeah irc she won the popular vote. Unfortunately it’s the electoral collage vote that wins you elections.
So the issue is not Clinton being a woman but the issue is the political system that americans never tried to change
Nah, I just think you personally are sexist and are looking to voters to validate your beliefs. Americans will vote for a women candidate. They just won’t vote for an uninspiring third way Democrat, whether they have a vag or not.
The only women they had to choose from were members of the establishment.
Let’s get a progressive out there and that way we have more data and can be more scientific about our analysis.
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Kamala?
Ok, yes, true, but Kamala never was chosen via the primary process, she was just forced on us as the default choice.
Shame AOC and Bernie could not hijack the Democratic Party like Krasnov did to the fucking GOP.
I wish her the best of luck if she decides to run and she would stomp on Vance.
I blame suburbanites and another group of people we’re not ever allowed to blame for anything ever no matter what.
They didn’t want to pay more in taxes and it was ‘her turn.’
This is why we have fascism.
Awww, that’s fun. People think we’re going to have an election in 2028.
People didn’t want Kamala because she wasn’t democratically elected as the leader of the party in a primary so they let full blown fascism take over instead. They felt it was more important to send the Democrats a message instead of actually keeping some minimal form of democracy and freedom. 🙄
So they’ll probably not vote for AOC if she becomes leader of the Democratic party anyway because of some minor excuse, like how she supported Israel’s right to exist, or something. And the US will end up with a third Trump mandate.
I hope the US will prove me wrong. My hope in Americans doing the right thing is pretty low.
Kamala pr was so terrible that she lost because of the issue of economy and border protection
alexandria ocasio-cortez should indeed run for president. seriously!
The election isn’t won by getting the most total votes which means getting more than 50%+1 of liberal states isn’t worth anything and losing 1% of swing states loses you the whole thing.
Anyone who is statistically tied with couch fucker is not a great bet
Prolly shouldn’t take betting advice from anyone making that kind of inference based on a poll years away from an election.
You are commenting on an article which is discussing only whether or not AOC could win the presidency years away based entirely on said poll. Are you stupid or did you forget?
It isn’t that hard to suppose that a substantial minority wont vote for a woman, a person of color, or someone they associate with Muslims (she is actually Catholic).
We learned that its fatal to put up someone who inspires people to stay home but it is likely worrisome to tick too many boxes as far as implicit bias. Look what they tried to do to Barrack “Husein” Obama. We are if anything else more divided, more ready to believe lies, more susceptible to bias compared to 2008.
Furthermore Vance is a particularly uninspiring person. He is gross and indeed right up there with Cruz in likeability.
It is absolutely notable that a competent person with a history of actual competence and decency is barely tied with Vance.
Fuuuuck yes!!!
This is off topic but God does she have a pretty smile.
The faces of democratic socialism: AOC, Kat Abughazaleh, Zohran Mamdani
The face of the GOP: [ insert bloated face Vance meme here ]
We also got Katie Wilson. Sure she isn’t classically gorgeous like those three, but damn does that woman represent Seattle.
Kat and Zohr too, yeah. Gorgeous people. Brother Zohr might just be the most photogenic of all of them, ngl. Coming from me as a cis het man.
I hate how much that improves her chances.
Don’t worry, she’s female, which will keep a bunch of people from voting for her
Honestly, people are so pissed at Trump, and there’s so little credibility left in the GOP even among their own base, that might not matter anymore.
She’s so fire though, politically, not just looks. Her whole social media presence is like scrolling c/murderedbywords. Love 'er.
This is some weird shit that only people in bubbles would comment.
It doesn’t help anyone but does make people celebrate losing ideas prematurely.
People in bubbles or people disconnected enough from American politics, I guess. European here. 🙋♂️ Hi.
51?
This is what’s wrong with people.
Even if trump had lost the election I was gonna be horrified if he had even gotten 30% of the votes. But this… Again. It doesn’t matter if AOC wins if half the country is basically saying, after all this, they want more.
These numbers mean absolutely fucking nothing. They could have surveyed people if they thought a rotten apple or pile of shit had a chance to win the white house and it would have been 49% to 51%
I don’t want either to run personally. AOC needs to go to the Senate or replace Jeffries before I feel she is ready for the shit show that comes with the broken relationships Trump has caused.
Vance just needs to be the bottom to a couch falling from a skyscraper.
Not just that but quite a few idiot black voters will feel a certain kind of way that a Puerto Rican woman was supported but a black woman wasn’t. (have family who would see it that way).
Who would you rather see as the Democratic nominee? (Assuming an election in 2028)
We aren’t there yet.
AOC needs to go to the Senate or replace Jeffries before I feel she is ready for the shit show that comes with the broken relationships Trump has caused.
You’re a coward. This is cowardly thinking. This is what got us Biden. This is what got us Clinton. Democrats try and reason themselves out of going with their best candidate. They select someone who has no fire, passion, or charisma. They reject any candidate that can inspire the base, all on the grounds that they don’t have enough experience, aren’t moderate enough, etc. We nominate some unelectable centrist, ironically on the back of “electability.” And then Republicans nominate a reality TV star with no governing experience at all, and the electable Dem loses in a landslide.
Maybe you just don’t know what it means for a candidate to be electable?
Did you vote? 1st question. Secondly, I’m guessing you didn’t read the whole comment.
Children’s attention spans these days.
Are you illiterate?
Tl;Dr. Tankie drivel.
So first you pretend that your original comment had content it didn’t. Then you throw around slurs. You’re insane. Really, someone dares to criticize corporate Dems, and you just can’t help yourself. You start throwing around slurs like “tankie” in a completely irrelevant context. You’re just an llm at this point, a blind parrot rattling off catch phrases.
Blind, butthurt and a hypocrite. Who slung insults first?
why the fuck are we even entertaining who is going to be the next when we are not even one year into this current nazi’s 2nd regime?
is news that slow?
The parties and media companies have extended the campaign window for presidency to absurd lengths. It’s essentially a two year campaign window with 6-12 months of preparation and testing the waters. Now is when candidates are conducting research to see what their odds would be.
